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全球市場陷入重度避險:中東局勢疊加美債收益率飆升

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年9月2日

美伊地緣衝突升級與美債收益率飆升打壓市場情緒

受中東地緣政治局勢急劇惡化的衝擊,週二全球金融市場全面陷入避險模式。美伊之間擴大的軍事衝突在各大資產類別間引發能源震盪,顯著壓制了全市場的風險偏好。

  • 軍事衝突持續擴大: 在伊朗對美軍設施發動報復性打擊後,美軍發起了新一輪空襲。川普警告稱,若伊朗採取進一步報復,美方將做出「規模顯著擴大」的軍事回應,顯示出雙方均無讓步跡象。
  • 原油價格飆升與通脹憂慮: 在能源供應中斷擔憂加劇的推動下,油價飆升至近 2 個月來的新高,重新燃起了全球對能源驅動型通脹的焦慮。
  • 美債收益率狂飆: 受通脹擔憂與發債壓力推升,美國 10 年期國債收益率飆升至 4.80% 附近,創下近 3 年來的最高水平。

展望今日盤面,整體市場情緒仍將受避險主導。尤其是在歷史性偏弱的「九月效應」疊加美債收益率攀升的雙重壓制下,全球股市短線料將持續面臨下行阻力。

外匯與美股每日展望

美元指數:99.00支撐穩固,反彈格局延續

在美債收益率高企及地緣政治避險買盤的支撐下,美元指數繼續維持堅挺。

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

正如昨日文章所述,美元指數依然穩固運行於 99.00 關鍵心理關口上方。只要日內價格維持在 99.00 之上,短線反彈結構依然完好,上方目標繼續指向 99.50 – 100.00。

(如需查看完整結構解析,請參考昨日美元指數專項分析。)

歐元/美元:受美元與避險情緒拖累,測試 1.1570 關鍵支撐

儘管昨日公布的區域內通脹指標上行引發歐洲央行(ECB)加息押注回升(8月標題通脹率升至同比 3%),歐元依然面臨持續壓制。

EURUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

雖通脹上行推升了歐洲央行 9 月加息的預期,這未能給歐元帶來實質性提振,當前匯價走勢主要受美元整體強勁以及市場避險情緒支配。

技術面上,歐元/美元正在 1.1570 – 1.1600 核心支撐帶附近徘徊。雖然匯價可能在 1.1570 迎來日內反彈,但若有效跌破 1.1570,將打開更深度的下行空間。整體展望維持偏空至盤整。

美股展望(納指 100 & 標普 500):關鍵技術位承壓,關注支撐有效性

隨著財報利好後的反彈缺乏持續買盤跟進,美股主要股指在技術面上再次顯現出脆弱性。

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

納斯達克 100(NAS100):近期的反彈未能形成有效延續,使指數重回脆弱格局。交易員應重點關注 29,000 心理支撐大關。若有效下破 29,000,將宣告修正浪向更低支撐延伸。

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

標普 500(SP500):大盤正在測試 7,600 核心支撐位。若無法守住 7,600,短線技術格局預計將切換為更廣泛的盤整修正形態。目前 7,700 仍為上方核心阻力關口。

核心觀點:短線來看,儘管標普 500 和納指 100 的整體技術結構在巨觀維度上依然維持看漲,但由中東局勢、油價飆升及美債收益率衝高帶來的短線逆風可能會壓制上行空間,甚至對美股市場施加一波階段性下行壓力。

市場總結與今日關注焦點

在美債收益率攀升至多年高位的背景下,今日市場走勢將繼續密切錨定中東地緣頭條新聞與借貸成本動態。

顯而易見的是,當前市場情緒持續受到中東地緣政治逆風與持續存在的收益率壓力所壓制。因此,週三的交易預計將繼續由謹慎的避險情緒所主導。

今日重點關注:

  • 中東突發頭條新聞: 跟蹤潛在的軍事報復行動及影響能源供應通道的地緣動態。
  • 美元指數 99.00 支撐地板: 監測 99.00 上方的價格穩定性,確認短線反彈動能。
  • 歐元/美元 1.1570 – 1.1600 支撐帶: 觀察 1.1570 能否引發日內反彈,還是破位下探打開更大空間。
  • 納斯達克 100 在 29,000 關口的反應: 觀察多頭能否守護 29,000 關口,抑或下破跌入延伸修正浪。
  • 標普 500 在 7,600 支撐位的表現: 跟蹤 7,600 附近的走勢以評估美股大盤的整體穩定性。

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